Ensemble forecasting method
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Ensemble forecasting
Numerical weather prediction models as well as the atmosphere itself can be viewed as nonlinear dynamical systems in which the evolution depends sensitively on the initial conditions. The fact that estimates of the current state are inaccurate and that numerical models have inadequacies, leads to forecast errors that grow with increasing forecast lead time. The growth of errors depends on the f...
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The breeding method has been used to generate perturbations for ensemble forecasting at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (formerly known as the National Meteorological Center) since December 1992. At that time a single breeding cycle with a pair of bred forecasts was implemented. In March 1994, the ensemble was expanded to seven independent breeding cycles on the Cray C90 super...
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Ensemble forecasting involves the use of several integrations of a numerical model. Even if this model is assumed to be known, ensembles are needed due to uncertainty in initial conditions. The ideas discussed in this paper incorporate aspects of both analytic model approximations and Monte Carlo arguments to gain some eeciency in the generation and use of ensembles. EEciency is gained through ...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Physics: Conference Series
سال: 2020
ISSN: 1742-6588,1742-6596
DOI: 10.1088/1742-6596/1703/1/012037